The Sixers entered an offseason looking to take advantage of their young core and a LeBron-less Eastern Conference. Is The Process complete? Only time will tell.
The Process is finally paying dividends. The Philadelphia 76ers saw a 28-game improvement this past season, secured the third seed in the Eastern Conference and won their first Playoff series since 2012. The team’s 42-game win increase since the 2015–16 season is tied with Boston’s run from 2006–08 for the largest turnaround in NBA history within a three-year span.
Despite seeing their first round picks miss their first season over and over again, the pieces have finally aligned for the Sixers to be a competitive team in the Eastern Conference for the long haul.
They’re not the only ones.
The Toronto Raptors brought in a superstar from the West, and the Celtics are eagerly waiting the return of their two superstars as well. If the Sixers want more than just a first round series win each year, then it’s time to shift from The Process to The Product and show the Philadelphia fans what Hinkie’s legacy will truly be.
On the outside looking in, the offseason has not been kind to the Sixers. In fact, since the end of the season their offseason could be rightly described as a roller coaster. Bryan “Big Collars” Colangelo was fired for Twittergate, they scorned a Villanova product (and local kid) Mikal Bridges by drafting him and immediately trading him to the Phoenix Suns for Zhaire Smith (and a 2021 unprotected first rounder from Miami), Jerry Colangelo announced he will leave the team at the end of 2018, and they lost out on all the big name free agents on the market — all the while losing several FAs of their own.
With all this turmoil, is it true that The Process is finally paying off? Let’s take a look.
Offseason Additions
Front Office
- Brett Brown given a 3-year contract extension
- Lindsey Harding named full-time scout
Draft
- Zhaire Smith (16th overall pick), signed two-year/$5.67 million contract
- Landry Shamet (26th overall pick), signed two-year/$3.69 million contract
- Shake Milton (54th pick), two-way contract with Delaware Blue Coats
Trade - Wilson Chandler (from Denver), signed four-year/$46.5 million contract
- Mike Muscala (from Atlanta), signed two-year/$10 million contract
Free Agency
- Re-signed J.J. Redick (one-year/ $12.25 million contract)
- Re-signed Amir Johnson (one-year/ $2.39 million contract)
- Jonah Bolden (four-year/$7 million contract)
Subtractions
Front Office
- Bryan Colangelo (resigned on June 7th, 2018)
- Jerry Colangelo (will step down at the end of 2018)
Trades
- Traded Justin Anderson to Atlanta Hawks (four-year/$7.05 million)
- Traded Timothé Luwawu-Cabarrot to Oklahoma City Thunder (three-year/$4.25 million)
- Traded Richaun Holmes to Phoenix Suns (four-year/$5.17 million)
Free Agency
- Nemanja Bjelica (Sacramento Kings, three-year/ $20.47 million)
- Marco Belinelli (San Antonio, two-year/$12 million)
- Ersan Ilyasova (Milwaukee Bucks, three-year/$21 million)
The Draft
I was going to say that the Sixers knocked it out of the park in the NBA Draft, but after flipping Mikal Bridges for Zhaire Smith, and the recent news that Smith is injured with a Jones fracture in his left foot, all I will do is leave this graphic here for posterity.
| Year | Player | School | Pick | Games Played | Out of | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Nerlens Noel | Kentucky | 6th Overall | 0 | 82 | ACL |
| 2014 | Joel Embiid | Kansas | 2nd Overall | 0 | 82 | Foot |
| 2015 | Jahlil Okafor | Duke | 3rd Overall | 53 | 82 | Fighting, Meniscus Tear, Fat |
| 2016 | Ben Simmons | LSU | 1st Overall | 0 | 82 | Broken Foot |
| 2017 | Markelle Fultz | Washington | 1st Overall | 0 | 82 | Forgot |
| 2018 | Zaire Smith | Texas Tech | 16th Overall | NA | NA | Foot |
This table is not only funny (maybe not to Sixers fans) but also painfully accurate. Nerlens Noel is going to test his luck in Oklahoma City, Jahlil Okafor recently signed with the New Orleans Pelicans, and Markelle Fultz is still a work in progress. Add in an injured Smith — although we don’t know how long he may miss — and either the Sixers rookies are cursed, or it’s a giant conspiracy by the 76ers to have their rookies “red shirt” their first year.
Smith may not have been the guy everyone thought the Sixers were going after, but he was still a great grab. The story would have been great if the Sixers had stuck with Bridges, but Smith may offer a bit more in terms of versatility and long-term upside than Bridges did. His explosiveness and burst left defenders in his wake in college(much like Fultz’s offensive skill set when he was in Washington). Smith is only 19 years old, so he has plenty of time to develop, and the upside he offers in both defensive prowess and the ability to guard multiple positions effectively make him a solid addition to the roster. The 2021 unprotected first round pick from Miami is an excellent, Process-leaning pickup as well.
Beyond Smith, Landry Shamet and Shake Milton both represent added depth as combo-guard type players that are athletic, good shooters, and add length and defense to a team that needs that type of added help coming off the bench.
Shamet has shown that his combo of length and basketball IQ will make him a good defender, as well as an excellent pick-and-roll player
Despite not being an exceptional defender, Milton has shown he can match up in multiple spots, and lean on his oft-utilized floater to keep defenses honest
Until we know for sure how long Smith will miss — if any time at all — it’s tough to grade the impact he will have. The 76ers had a great draft, and even though it’ a bummer that they shipped Bridges off to Phoenix, receiving Smith and Miami’s unprotected 2021 first-round pick is huge, and will play a big role in the Sixers future going forward.
Extending Brett Brown’s Contract
They say that Sam Hinkie died for their sins, but Brett Brown is the one who has had to deal with them year after year. Since he took over in 2013, Brown has suffered five losing seasons in a row. He didn’t make the Playoffs any of these years, and failed to win more than 20 games three times! If the 1966-67 Sixers team was the best team in League history, then the 2015–16 might have been the worst. Through it all, Brown has kept the ship afloat. Rarely did you hear about ego problems or team morale problems, no player lobbied for him to be fired and management always supported him.
In one of his last moves before resigning, Colangelo and Brown agreed on an extension that would keep the Gregg Popovich disciple in Philly until the 2021 season.
The Eastern Conference Coach of the Month for April and May has made a cultural shift in the locker room. Brown has shown commitment to the Process as he has aided in the continued development of the young players that make up the core of the Sixers starting unit. This past season, the Sixers ranked in the top-three in assists (27.1 per game, 2nd only to the Warriors), and defensive rating (102). His offensive style is best described as pace, space and defend.
Much like the Houston Rockets, the Sixers offense is based on spacing the floor to set up shooters. It ranked ninth in offensive ratings and the starting five of Covington, Embiid, Saric, Redick and Simmons outscored opponents by 269 points, 100 points more than any other lineup in the league. It’s ironic that the offense is predicated on shooting when Simmons has no jump shot, Covington is as inconsistent as Philadelphia weather, and Markelle Fultz literally forgot how to shoot a basketball. Brown doubled down though, and relied on the likes of Marco Belinelli and J.J. Redick to pose consistent outside threats night after night.
On the opposite end, the Sixers ranked second in the East in defensive efficiency behind only Boston. Their tough-nosed defense led to NBA All-Defensive selections for Covington (first team) and Embiid (second team).
Brown is the captain moving forward, and regardless of the mess in the front office, he has made it clear that the tanking is over — The Process has finally come to fruition. The East is still not easy to navigate despite LeBron James departing for L.A., as the top half of the Conference is stacked with talent. ESPN predicted the Sixers to finish third in the Conference, and that’s all well and good, except it’s not. Brown has made it clear that the Sixers are moving their timeline up in terms of Championship expectations, and if that’s the case, then Brown is the right man to lead the charge.
“Our expectations have changed, and that’s a good thing,” … I love the direction that we’re heading all over the place. We’re on to something special here.”
While the leadership has cracked — and maybe even crumbled — the most important piece still remains. The Colangelos have had a mixed-bag of success in the NBA and the departure of the father-son duo will be bring a mixed-bag of reactions in the City of Brotherly Love. There is no indifference in the extension of Brown though, fans know that if the team is too succeed, then Brown needs to be the one at the helm.
Filling in the Missing Pieces
Wilson Chandler
Philly loves the underdogs. Just look at the Eagles. Just look at the way Sixers crowds erupted for the likes of Ersan Ilyasova and Marco Belinelli. Philly loved those guys because they were the perfect bench players; they came in and were exceptional in their limited roles. Who could forget Belinelli’s game-tying jumper in the dying seconds of Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals?
They epitomized the blue-collar attitude that defines Philly. And just like all fan favorites, their tenures came to bitter ends. Ilyasova left in free agency for the Milwaukee Bucks, and Belinelli left for the San Antonio Spurs. So how does Philly replace the offense they provided? Originally, the idea was to go after the Big Names. Instead, they made a trade that cost them next to nothing. LeBron went to L.A., Paul George stayed in Oklahoma City, Kawhi Leonard is heading to the North — and the Sixers missed on all three.
In lieu of missing on those pieces, they added Wilson Chandler. A small forward whom cost the team cash considerations, Chandler has shown his versatility on defense, and is continuing to improve on his mid-range shot each season. He can hit the outside shot much like Ilyasova and Belinelli, but more importantly, he can defend multiple positions.
Here we see Chandler come off the screen, much like Belinelli was tasked with in Philly
Here we see Chandler patrolling the paint and staying active, ultimately getting a steal
Ilyasova was a hybrid big man; he could be slated to play at power forward or center depending on what Brown wanted from his lineup. Belinelli, though, was not a hybrid. He was the epitome of three-and-D, except without the D. He was an extreme liability on the defensive end and it often negated any positive contributions he had on offense. Chandler is a physical defender, and saw playing time at both small forward (68 percent of his time last season was spent at small forward) and shooting guard (32 percent) and can switch as necessary.
Though his defense will be beneficial to the Sixers, Chandler’s three-point shooting will be just as important. It was no secret that the Sixers had a lack of shooters last season. Simmons, Fultz and Covington all faced challenges when it came to jump shots. Chandler can help alleviate that pain. While his three-point percentage (35 percent) was lower that that of Belinelli (38 percent) and Ilyasova (36 percent), it’s important to understand that he wasn’t a three-point specialist. Belinelli’s three-point attempts accounted for 53 percent of his total shot attempts, while Chandler’s only accounted for 39 percent. Chandler instead relied on the inside game. He only had a usage rate of 14 percent, but when the ball was in his hands he acted accordingly. He shot 66 percent from inside three-feet, 39 percent between three and 10 feet, and 37 percent between 16 and three-point range (see below).
Lazy defense leading to the easy transition basket for Chandler
Much like Belinelli, Chandler was keen on the catch-and-shoot; he was assisted on 48 percent of his two-point attempts and 93 percent on his three-point attempts. Belinelli was assisted on 89 percent and 95 percent in comparison.
Unlike Belinelli though, Chandler was adept at ball penetration. He was able to put the ball on the floor and get to the rim — where 28 percent of his field goal attempts came from. Belinelli was not. He liked to dribble a lot, but wasn’t physical enough to get in the paint. We all know he was asked to be a spot-up specialist, but he only attempted 13 percent of his shots within three feet. That’s the advantage Philly has with Chandler.
At 6'9, 225 lbs., Chandler is taller and more physical than Belinelli and can drive into traffic with ease
In today’s NBA, the more shooters the better, and that rings even truer for Brown’s offense. Chandler increases the amount of shooting threats on the floor. Even if he acts solely as a sixth man, having him on the floor with a combo of Redick, Saric, Covington or Embiid, will help to stretch the defense and open up driving lanes for Simmons or Fultz to take advantage of.
Chandler was traded from Denver in order to shed his $12.8 million contract as well as to offer an extension (and starting spot) to Will Barton, but the Sixers will utilize him to bring competition to the small forward position and add another piece to an already deep team.
Mike Muscala
The Sixers had a plan for the departure of Ilyasova. His name was Nemanja Bjelica, the 35th overall pick in the 2010 draft. The 6'10" Serbian was supposed to be the perfect replacement for Ilyasova. He was the perfect size and had the range (41.5 percent from deep) and mobility to fill the void left at the power forward spot. His versatility would have been perfect to back up guys like Saric, Amir Johnson or Embiid. Unfortunately, it did not work out as planned. Bjelica was going to spend a year in Europe, but decided instead to spurn the Sixers and sign a contract with the Sacramento Kings for three-years and $20.47 million.
So instead of Bjelica, they went out and got Mike Muscala from the Atlanta Hawks. A stretch four/five, Muscala was acquired in a trade that sent Justin Anderson to Atlanta. Here is what Brown had to say about the new arrival.
“Mike Muscala joins our program at a fantastic stage of his career. He has enjoyed some NBA success and his upside in the future is extremely bright. We will use him both as a backup five and, at times, a power forward. His ability to shoot the ball and the energy with which he plays will help our basketball team.”
Muscala may not carry the same clout or star power as other signings, but he is exactly what Ilyasova and Belinelli were last year; players signed to small contracts, asked to do specific things, and gained the love of the city when they performed exceptionally. Signings like these aren’t going to blow up news reports, but they are the staples of good teams.
No doubt he will be battling for minutes with Johnson, Chandler and newly signed Jonah Bolden, but given his volume of three-point attempts (5.7 last year) he may hold the advantage. He is the closest that the Sixers can get to replicating the exploits of Ilyasova, as he attempted 5.4 three-pointers per 36 minutes and hit on 36 percent of them. Muscala hit on 37 percent of his.
Muscala drifts to the corner and nails the corner three
The type of volume that he puts up is pretty incredible given that he sees the majority of his time at either power forward (47 percent of his on-court time last season) or center (52 percent). Muscala also had comparable numbers to Ilyasova in total rebounds per 36 minutes (7.8 vs. 10), steals (1.1 for both players), and blocks (0.9 v 0.6). The biggest drop-off was in Real Plus-Minus, where Ilyasova (.92 RPM, good for 22nd best among power forwards) held a clear advantage over Muscala (.44 RPM, good for 32nd among power forwards). Despite that stark difference, Muscala still proves to be a near-identical replacement for Ilyasova, and one that should provide almost no drop-off in productivity come the beginning of the season.
LeBron James leaving the eastern Conference is huge, and the Sixers will look to take full advantage of that. They will likely finish in the Top 4 of the Eastern Conference, allowing for another postseason of growth from the young guns as well as the seasoned vets looking to continue to climb the conference ladder.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference*