The final round of pool games is this weekend, and only one on the eight places in the quarter finals has been decided. Leinster fans, well done, you're through and can relax.
To work out the magic number of points needed to qualify can get a bit complicated. The eighth and final place goes tot he third best second place team (what a horrible way of writing that, sorry). To start with, the minimum points second place can get:
Pool 1 - 16 (if La Rochelle Lose with no bonus point and Wasps don't get a bonus point win)
Pool 2 - 15 (Ospreys lose with no BP and Saracens lose)
Pool 3 - 14 (Exeter lose with no BP and Montpellier lose)
Pool 4 - 15 (Racing lose with no BP and Castres lose)
Pool 5 - 17 (Scarlets lose, Bath don't get BP win)
The magic number is 15
In extremely rare circumstances, 15 points may see your team through. In terms of the highest possible eighth seed, to get a number that surpassing guarantees qualification:
Pool 1 - 21 (La Rochelle and Ulster BP wins)
Pool 2 - 20 (Ospreys BP win, Clermont get 4 tries and within 7 of Ospreys)
Pool 3 - 19 (Exeter BP win)
Pool 4 - 20 (Racing BP win, Munster win)
Pool 5 - 20 (Scarlets win, Toulon 4 tries and within 7 points)
21 points will definitely get your team through
It's extremely tight for those best runner up spots. From these numbers we can establish that, those still in contention for the knockout stages are:
Ulster
La Rochelle
Wasps
Clermont Auvergne
Ospreys
Saracens
Leinster (already qualified)
Exeter
Montpellier
Munster
Racing 92
Castres
Toulon
Scarlets
Bath
Just the 15 teams for the eight spots then...
As pool leaders, "all" Ulster and Munster have to do is get bonus point wins. Toulon and Clermont Auvergne will be through with simple wins.
To win their pools outright:
La Rochelle need to do one point better than Ulster, but they also need to keep their points difference better than Wasps in their worst case scenario. There's a 12 point difference gap for Wasps to make up, and it's hard to imagine that in a bonus point win for Wasps and a defeat for La Rochelle that isn't bridged. Two points minimun to top the group then.
Wasps need a bonus point win, deny Ulster anything and for La Rochelle to lose at home, to Harlequins, doesn't seem very likely.
Ospreys need to beat Clermont Auvergne, by more than seven points, or by scoring four tries and conceding less than four. Any 4-1 or 5-2 match point scenarios will lead to Clermont being top as they have a 23 point difference advantage, which could only come down to nine at most with those results.
Racing 92 need to outscore Munster by one match point while overcoming a 15 point difference gap. Small problem though, is that if that means getting one point, it may also entail Castres getting five points as they'd have to beat Munster comfortably, and Racing getting to 16 points is no good if Castres are on 17. Realistically, this means a draw or a win, while Munster lose, is Racing's ticket to top of the group.
Castres need a bonus point win and for Racing to lose without getting both bonus points to get through.
A win for Scarlets sees them through against Toulon.
To be runners up
Ulster can only fall to third in their pool if Wasps get a 5-0 match point victory, so picking up a single point would guarantee second, if not a quarter final place outright. A win of any sort would guarantee a place in the quarters regardless of what La Rochelle do.
La Rochelle need one point to guarantee second. A bonus point win would get them a quarter final spot of some description guaranteed. If Wasps lose La Rochelle will be second at least.
Wasps need a bonus point win, and one of La Rochelle or Ulster get nothing.
One point is all Clermont need for second in their pool.
For Ospreys, a win will guarantee top two in their pool, while a bonus point draw would also secure second spot.
Saracens need two more points than Ospreys. A Draw will be enough if Ospreys lose by 11 or more, a win if Ospreys lose. If Ospreys win, Saracens need a bonus point victory, hope Clermont get nothing and overcome a 30 point different gap.
Exeter need to match whatever Montpellier get to be second in the pool. To have any chance of making the quarters they will need at least one match point from their trip to Glasgow. As the worst placed second place side they are almost certainly going to need to win to get through.
Montpellier need a miracle. With a dreadful points difference, they need to beat Leinster to have any chance of getting through. They also need Exeter to not win.
Munster need one point to secure second.
Racing 92 secure second by getting within 3 of whatever Castres do this weekend, which means two points puts them out of range.
Castres need to beat Munster, Racing to lose, and to get one bonus point more than Racing this week.
One point secures Toulon second in their pool.
Scarlets will be second with two points, so either a draw or both bonus points secures it. One point would also give them a good chance.
Bath need a bonus point win and Scarlets to thrash Toulon heavily, or a bonus point with Scarlets taking nothing from their game. If Scarlets score four tries, Bath would need a bonus point win and win up to 18 points. If Scarlets keep within seven for a bonus point, that Bath total goes up to 26.