There is no doubt in my mind that cryptocurrency is going to be the medium of exchange over the next 10 years. As blockchain becomes more commonplace and technological advancements allow for a seamless moving from one currency to another, I believe we will see the majority of transactions done via this mode of payment.
Personally, I am not in the camp that fiat is dead. The banksters will do all they can to support it and it will actually have some uses. However, it will decline as the medium of exchange as more commerce takes place in the digital realm, especially via the use of blockchain. Internet 3.0 will foster this switch in a big way.
Ultimately, it will be "when in Rome, do what the Romans do".
What this means is fiat will be used in those areas where fiat is necessary. For example, when traveling around the U.S., many places will still accept the USD. Restaurants, coffee shops, movie theaters and department stores will use the USD. Of course, many will start to gravitate towards the cryptocurrencies.
People debated which currency will be the "money" in the future. Will it be Bitcoin? No because it is too slow and expensive. Will it be BCash? Zcash? Monero? LTC? ETH? STEEM? Which token will be the one defaulted to for purchases? People need to know what will be used to pay for their coffee (most likely the Java coin).
Ultimately, I believe the atomic swaps that were completed gave us insight into the world we are going to see. We already witnessed this with the BTC to LTC conversion. Over time, I feel we will see the technology developed where this will happen between different blockchains.
So the answer to the question which currency will people use is a rather simple one.
People will use whatever tokens they have.
It really is that basic. Why do people in the United States use the USD? Did they analyze it to determine how it is so much better than the Euro? No. The reason they use it is because that is what they are paid in. The reverse is true in Germany where the Euro is used over the USD.
People spend what they have.
Which brings us to the second part of this equation.
There are over 1500 tokens out there. Some have value while others do not. What is it that determines the value of a currency?
The short answer to this is the number of people using it. One of the main reasons the USD has the value it does is because hundreds of millions of people agree to use it (obviously without choice but I digress). If only two people had the USD, it would carry little value.
We see this in the optional currency world called crypto. Since people have a choice of what they acquire, not all currencies carry much value. In this realm, it is crucial to understand that cryptocurrency is a technology. Hence, we operate under some of the same "laws" as other technologies.
One method I use when looking at different cryptocurrencies is to consider the development that is taking place on the blockchain. The main reason I am uber bullish on STEEM is because of the all the development we see taking place. People are creating different applications that are essentially businesses. Over time, a few of these will be enormous successes meaning the entire ecosystem grows.
Of course, not all tokens have their own blockchain in this regard. Many were essentially created on another chain like the ERC20 tokens. Here we have a situation where we need to focus upon what is the token designed to solve. It is through this use, ergo a utility token, that we can forecast the opportunity for success. Naturally there are other variables that come into play yet this is at the top of the list.
If a token has a good reason for existing and can be acquired through the utility (in addition to purchase), then it has a chance to grow in popularity. It is when more people are getting the token that the value of the network can grow. One of the reasons some people are bearish on Bitcoin is because the numbers of wallets being opened is slowing. This means the pace newer people are signing onto the system and acquiring the token is decreasing.
So where does Manna fit into this and why do I foresee it as a core currency?
Manna was designed as a basic income to reduce global poverty. It comes from the premise that most of the world is poor because it suffers generational poverty. This is not from a lack of effort, laziness, or not being smart enough. Essentially, the world's poorest people had no chance. They live in parts of the world where there is no opportunity. Either they live under a tyrannical regime which basically starves people or are in an area where there is little in terms of the basics. Sections of Africa and SE Asia are examples of the later; North Korea and Cuba of the former.
Manna is a cryptocurrency. The success upon this token, like all others will be the number of people using it. So why will people opt to use this one?
Because it is given to them.
People use whatever currency they have. One of the major benefits of Manna is that it is given to anyone who verifies. There is nothing to do beyond that. Once verified, tokens show up on a weekly basis. As time passes, the "network" effect as referenced in Metcalfe's Law kicks in.
Every token is operating under this premise and seeking to kick this off. STEEM is closing in on 1M users. That means 1M wallets exist which can be filled with tokens. Leaving duplicate accounts aside, we know the vast majority of those accounts are inactive. Nevertheless, there is the possibility some of those people do return at some point. As the number of users grow (the network size), the value of STEEM in each of their wallets should increase.
However, to get more STEEM, they need to do something i.e. post, comment, and upvote.
Now let us contrast this with Manna.
Once someone is verified, that person gets Manna each week. Over the course of months, even if the person forgets about the wallet, Manna is being added. Under this circumstance, a Manna holder could be termed "inactive". Upon returning, the amount of Manna in the wallet will have grown and, if the number of people signing up increased, the value of Manna should be higher.
Of course, when that person "comes back", there is nothing to do to get more Manna other than wait another week.
Manna is a token that is designed to be given to people. Like all cryptocurrencies, the success depends upon the number of people who acquire the token. Since Manna is given to people, the success is contingent upon how many people it is given to. The more that are given the token, the higher the value. Therefore, the only question is how many people will this be given to?
We know that people will spend what they have. Unless cryptocurrency goes away (it isnt going to), people will be utilizing tokens as currency in the future. The ones they use depends upon what they have. Manna is given freely to people. Hence, people will have Manna in their wallets.
That is why I believe it will be a core currency...once signed up, there is nothing for people to do to get it....it just keeps showing up.
Personally I like the chances of something where success depends upon how many people it is freely given to.
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