It is no longer hidden.
Disruption is often hard to see especially by those within an industry. The reason for this is not because these people are stupid or have their head in the same.
Most entities are disrupted due to the fact that stakeholders have interests that are misaligned. Issues arise when those involved fail to step back and see what is really taking place. In other words, they are too immersed in what is right there they fail to register all that is taking place in other areas.
This ends up leading to the inevitable surprise as things start to reach critical mass. We saw this in the retail sector as Amazon started to make an impact. Even after the retailers started to take a hit, the mall operators still did not realize what was taking place. Certainly the financial institutions were not aware of the damage, as they kept lending to said operators, pouring more debt on top.
In countries like the United States, we know how that turned out.
The same thing is happening to Hollywood yet it is no longer a surprise to some within the industry.
Hollywood: An Industry In Chaos
The entire industry received a dire warning from one of the executives at Sony Pictures:
At the annual Bank of America media, Communications & entertainment Conference, Vinciquerra said Hollywood is in for “chaos” over the next two years. He predicted the industry is in for a wave of “mergers and bankruptcies and sales and all kinds of fun things,” and that only the biggest companies will survive. Unless, that is, those giants “make some massive mistake or miscalculation” along the way.
He is bring forth some harsh language to an industry that has done some dancing around. Many operate like there is a way out of this. Vinciquerra is really laying it on.
“The business […] will be in a period of chaos for the next 18 to 24 months,” Vinciquerra said. “Just look at all the companies with cable networks that have this albatross of cable networks around their necks that they have to figure out what to do with.”
This is right on cue as billions is being written down relating to traditional broadcasting channels. At this point, many of them are basically worthless, a fact having to be mirrored on their balance sheets.
Sony had an interest in Paramount, but only for the IP. This is the fate of many of the media companies. Their libraries might have some appeal but that is it. Outside of that, there is little else of value.
Of course, Sony is not in the clear either.
The End Of Centralized Entities
We are seeing the end of centralized entertainment. These entities are cooked.
Technology is going to ensure the complete demise of this industry. Nobody is really safe. My guess is Sony Pictures ends up going the way of AT&T's long distance division.
There will be a point where this is worthless other than perhaps the IP content.
Personalized entertainment will emerge. My guess is that it starts to pick up some validity in about 2 years. If that is the case, the timeline that Vinciquerra laid out is only the start.
If he is still around, he might find himself mired in the mess also.
People are going to receive personalized entertainment. This is what generative AI will eventually evolve to. That means that turning to a studio for the entertainment, i.e films or television programming, will not be necessary. Instead, it will be done by a computer.
We are already to the point where graphic artists are not required for basic image creation. That will get to the point where it will be true in almost every case. There could be some spec work out there but that will be it.
Video is a bit further behind in the technology race. That said, it will get there soon enough. With the pace of things in the generative AI world, do not be surprised if you are getting hit up by one of your friends sharing a video that was generate just for them.
This will likely start in 2026.
It is a fast moving disruption that is only going to accelerate.