So I got around 11.2 ETH and 33k LEO back from the wLEO hack. No small chunk of change indeed. You know, I almost feel bad about it. To know the risks and state them multiple times; to accept the risks; have all my money stolen, but then get bailed out anyway? Pretty weird scenario.
Silver Lining
Clearly, this hack was not a complete loss. @khaleelkazi has bought a lot of good faith with this bailout. Logic would dictate that with this many tokens being refunded, surely many would exit as the result of such a devastating attack. In reality, we see the opposite happening.
@onealfa and a few other bullish whales have flipped the script and capitalized on this unfortunate incident as a supreme buying opportunity. In my opinion, we should have crashed to around 0.35 (like we did) and stayed there. Instead we made an instant recovery. There seems to be a huge invisible buy wall at the 1:1 ratio to Hive.
Not only is selling here a bad idea because of this invisible buy wall, it also centralizes the network pretty bad.
https://leodex.io/richlist/LEO
I never thought I'd see a single account with more coins than @noleoforyou (our downvoting account). Now there are four, and @onealfa has significantly more stake than even @null does. He owns more than the entire network has even burned. Pretty crazy. He's gone full "beastmode" as he powers up to 666,666.666 stake.
With 1:1 seemingly being the new low-end baseline, it feels like we're targeting at least another 10x before the next Bitcoin bubble ends. It could even get crazy and spike x100-x1000 over the next year. Anything is possible in crypto with these micro caps. Hive could do the same. I fully believe we are approaching the good ol' days of 2017 when bloggers were earning a completely unsustainable amount of money (thousands of dollars PER POST). The trick is to take gainz and maintain a balanced position in the event of the inevitable dump and subsequent bear market.
Truly I wanted to sell a lot of this LEO and get my Bitcoin reserves back, but like everyone else in the LEO community, I'm pretty committed at this point and I'm not about to dump into a centralizing buy wall controlled by the whims of a handful of bulls. Now is the best time to be risking a lot on smaller market caps anyway. I can rebalance once Bitcoin is trading higher than $100k. As it stands now even Bitcoin is at the absolute baseline and can really only go up from here considering everything that's going on.
2020 Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6933 | $7467 | $8000 | $8533 | $9067 | $9600 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10133 | $10667 | $11200 | $11733 | $12267 | $12800 |
In just a few months I'll have to do the napkin math to calculate the month to month doubling curve baseline for 2021. It will double from $12800 to $25600. $1066.66 per month. However, as we've seen in the past, the fourth year of the halving cycle breaks all the rules as the price skyrockets x10 or more above the curve only to return to the curve a year later.
This is why I predict a price of Bitcoin at $280,000 in Q4 2021 with a crash down to $56k in Q1 2023. Funny how $56k is still more than x4 from where we are today. The world is going to go completely insane if this pattern actually repeats once again. As corporations start to pad the balance sheets and even Paypal is coming around... I have to assume it's actually going to happen. Expect even more bullish developments to pop their heads up over the next 6 months.
I've been predicting this for over a year now, but I still think there's a good chance the next mega bull run will end with a major ETF being approved, just like the last one was ended with CME futures hitting the market. Don't be surprised if the top blows off this volcano in the weeks to follow such a "bullish" announcement. Get ready for those sob stories of those who put their house up for collateral and bought a single Bitcoin for $250k... lol. So bad. How many more times will Bitcoin be declared dead? Time will tell.
Printing money only goes so far.
We all know that at a certain point the chickens come home to roost. The debt-addict of this legacy economy is going to overdose sooner or later. The ones who created the problem will not be the ones who pay the price for their negligence and greed. Count on it.
Powered up
Seeing as I'm not selling anytime soon apparently, having that many liquid coins makes me nervous. I've powered up most of the bailout, just like many others. 30k tokens into my previous 40k. Now I have 70k stake with an 11 LEO upvote... pretty good.
Window shopping.
At current value, my upvote is already like $1.70 a pop; $17 a day. Let me tell you... that's pretty crazy from my point of view. What happens if we x10 again? $170? x100? $1700. That's not even taking into consideration as to what Hive does, in which I have even more stake than LEO. Again, the days of $1000 blog posts could be on our doorstep before you know it. How many are actually ready for that?
I've already told several people they need to prepare for the bull market. Anyone who thinks that no preparations need to be made to make money (instead of lose it while hodling) is not familiar with emotional tilt. The mistakes you make while riding high on a trump are just as financially devastating as the ones we make when we are in the hole and doubling down to get out of it. Easy come, easy go.
Hard go.
Don't throw away money just because you have a lot of it.
Just sayin.
Conclusion
If you're like me and you empathize with @khaleelkazi for taking such a big hit making all the wLEO investors whole again, what should you do? The only thing you can do. Try to bring as much value to this network as you can. That could be buying more LEO, designing an app, or even just blogging it up depending on your skillset. Everyone has their part to play.
Personally I'd like to create a Fantasy Bitcoin League for LEO that allows users to trade Bitcoin with fake money but create betting pools that payout LEO depending on who traded the best over certain periods of time. Here's to hoping I find the time, funding, and willpower to accomplish such a venture.
It should be obvious by now that LEO whales hold strong no matter what happens. This is a community of uber-bullish holders. Let's keep it that way.