Saw this tweet recently by CZ and it made me think a little bit about #hive:
https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1643719632551829504
- cz_binance
First up that's some surprising numbers right now off the gate, I wouldn't have expected there to be 1 million addresses with over 1 BTC. Of course, if you think about how easy it is to create BTC addresses and that a lot of people like to diversify risk you can't expect all of them to be unique people, but lets for the sake of it say half might be unique. Half of them are people who have at one point in time thought "eh what the hell, let's just place 1 coin in there and forget about it until later".
Let's think about that and compare it to Hive. We all are quite aware of how unique Hive is but that doesn't mean everyone else is. Our strengths are that we have a vibrant and diversified community without borders, a combined currency that unites us all and we all benefit from if it does well. A resource system connected to the currency that makes it possible to transact at no cost for the users and makes so many dapps seamless.
We also exist on one of the biggest exchanges in the world, have been around for quite a few years, even longer if you consider the centralized fork as part of our history and are constantly fine-tuning both the tech and how things work. Our curation system is the most unique one in the world with no other currencies even attempting anything close to it while the community evolves its social consensus on what's acceptable and what isn't.
Before I get too side-tracked with everything Hive is, I wanted to make this post a bit more about math and Hive's supply in comparison to Bitcoin and say "millionaires of the world" as mentioned in CZ's tweet.
56 million millionaires is quite a staggering number as well, it has risen quite a lot lately with things like inflation, the era of the internet and whatnot. We've just surpassed 8 billion people and the number just keeps on growing.
I've often thought to myself that growing as a content creator is quite easy these days, since there are so many people and the ease of the internet makes it accessible to everyone there's a higher chance that you'll find people that are interested in you and they stick around. No matter what it is you create content about everyone will eventually have their following, the question is only how early you start and how consistent and effective you are. Similarly this is also something that Hive benefits from, we don't need everyone to join at once but as long as people join, stick around, learn, get used to it, more and more will remain over time or at least have their account to return to eventually.
Okay so again, let's get back to the numbers. This won't be exact but with the way Hive inflates there's going to be around 1 billion Hive coins in existence in a little over a decade when the yearly inflation number drops to 0.5%.
Every year, hive issuance is dropping by around 0.5%, we are currently at something like 6.5% I believe. This means that if total supply by 2036 is around 1 billion coins, the yearly newly generated supply will be about 5 million Hive.
Even if I attempted to be exact the supply of Hive is hard to predict cause a lot of it depends on HBD and how conversions go. Hive was for instance deflationary last year according to @dalz' stats and is back to inflationary this year.
Okay, so let's get back to the theoretical numbers now.
Let's say in 13 years there's a similar amount of people interested in Hive and let's take the number from above where we assumed half of the 1 million addresses owning 1 BTC are unique people. 500,000 unique people would want an equal amount of Hive stake to "forget about it for the foreseeable future.
500k people owning 500k BTC is about 2.4% of the total supply. Compared to Hive in 2036 this would mean 24 million Hive out of 1 billion Hive supply. This would mean that 500k people would hold an equal amount of Hive they've set aside compared to holding 1 BTC today, this would equate to 48 Hive per person. Yep, I triple checked the math on that.
Now of course there will be users with a lot more Hive, same as how there's people with a lot more BTC. This is just as a comparison if Hive were to become as popular in 13 years as BTC is now. There's a lot of differences between the two, of course, one is a lot easier to earn while the other is easier to buy currently.
Let's now look at the number of millionaires which currently is at 56m millionaires, them all having at least $1m means that's 56 trillion $. If they all strived to want at least 1 BTC (ignoring the fact that many hold more than 1 or that part of the supply is lost/locked out, this would bring BTC price at $2.666m per token if they all traded their fiat/assets for BTC. Of course this is also all theoretical, early traders would get in much cheaper, etc.
Now for the fun of it, let's say all those millionaires would instead prefer Hive. Let's assume Hive is a top currency at the time, the leading decentralized social media network in the world by 2036 and they'd prefer it over BTC so they'd trade for it and in this scenario, it'd hold their initial value of $56 trillion.
1 Billion Hive in existence valued at $56 trillion market cap would mean 1 Hive would be worth $56k.
In CZ's initial tweet it said the amount of millionaires grew by 5% since 3 years ago. If this keeps up with inflation and wealth generation it would mean amount of millionaires could as much as double by 2036. It also didn't mention how much money these millionaires have which according to Wikipedia is at 158 trillion which in our theoretical number above would make hive worth 3x more, but okay let's look at some more realistic numbers instead.
Market capitalization of the largest U.S. internet companies as of February 2023
That's a total of $3285 billion (3.285 trillion $).
If you look at the companies it's not difficult to imagine that something like Hive could easily replace them in terms of what they do and how it could work more efficiently, faster and cheaper here. Even if Hive only managed to get 10% of their marketcap by 2036 it would turn 1 Hive into $3285.
Anyway, one could do a lot more theoretical comparisons, you could for instance look at other companies that Hive could easily replace, their marketcaps, etc.
One could also imagine how big of a marketcap BTC could attain after a certain amount of years and its competitors currently such as gold or other proof of store assets and then imagine how high other top 10 currencies could go looking at them now and hoping it'll mean the centralized shitcoins would be gone by then and Hive being somewhat closer valued to the giant first movers.
I think it's safe to say that there's quite a lot of upside to Hive while the downside is not that steep.
Will you be holding at least 48 Hive(power) for the long term, anon?
