I'm not sure what to make of Trump's assassination attempt. Some claim it's a black swan event, while others disagree. There's even a small percentage of people who have jumped into conspiracy theories, suggesting that Trump himself orchestrated the entire thing. At this point, it doesn't really matter what actually happened.
What does matter, however, is that BTC has reacted positively to the news, and a plethora of Trump-related meme coins have been created on the Solana blockchain over the weekend. If Trump manages to get back in the game and win the presidency, these coins could potentially do well. The crypto market has seemingly shifted its sentiment from "we're over it" to "we're back" in a remarkably short period of time.
It's astonishing how quickly people change sides. I've been bullish on Bitcoin since it dipped to $15,000 (and I didn't expect it to go that low), and I plan to remain so until it reaches $100,000. Once BTC hits that mark, I'll become increasingly cautious, as the top might be right around the corner.
We don't know when that will occur – it could be a few months or a year from now. Regardless of the timeline, I've outlined my plan on paper. Another point I want to make about the recent price action of BTC is that, with or without the Trump assassination attempt, Bitcoin would have emerged from its correction this summer either way.
However, if Trump had been killed, it's likely that all markets would have taken a bigger hit.
Bitcoin is forming a beautiful cup and handle pattern, indicating there's significant room for further upward movements and setting the stage for an altcoin season. As I've mentioned before on my blog, I don't believe we'll see a proper altcoin season until BTC breaks and holds above its ATH, and ETH does the same. We need both to perform well in the coming months.
This is when small and micro-cap coins will really start to soar. So far, what we've seen is just a series of test pumps. The true altcoin season usually occurs months after the halving, and given we're already past that point, if history repeats itself, we can expect well over a year of bullish price action before entering bearish territory once again.
Nothing is certain, though. I'm constantly seeing people on Twitter claiming that the bull market is guaranteed to last until the end of 2025. These individuals remind me of the super cycle theory believers from 2021. Anyone who follows such narratives blindly will likely miss out on important gains – I know I did in 2021, and I regret it.
That's why I'm not basing my strategy this time on time patterns. Instead, I'm aiming to DCA out of the market as BTC approaches $100,000 and the euphoria stage kicks in. By the end of this stage, I want to be all-in on stablecoins, with HBD being one of them.
"Remember, one must make it through The Boring Zone to unlock The Banana Zone." This statement holds a lot of truth, as three months of the "banana zone" can yield 100X more profits than three years of the "boring zone."
The fear and greed index has returned to neutral, and in the coming months, it will once again plunge into extreme greed. This is when things start to get truly interesting, and all sorts of amateurs will appear like geniuses as they 10X their accounts in a matter of weeks. You're not a genius unless you cash out these profits, as the market will likely take it all back if you don't.
Just how high will the market go? Higher than you ever imagined possible... Don't forget to take profits along the way. Based on the current economic data, a recession and a cold bear market are looming in the future.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian