I addressed this topic in a previous post here
Not many people saw the post because I only posted it to my blog. Sorry, I'm still learning the process for doing things on PEAKD. I think that I've finally figured out how to post things for the Splinterlands community at large.
We do have some new information from the town hall this week.
@splinterlands/splinterlands-town-hall-summary-february-9th-2022-8pm-eastern
Carnage Titan is expected at an airdrop rate of 1 BCX per 525 airdrop points. Subsequent airdrops will be expected at a rate of 1 BCX per 550, 575, 600 etc...
These numbers are not yet final, but the town hall summary said that we should receive final word from @yabapmatt soon.
The rates for our previous Chaos Legion airdrops:
The first airdrop was Dr Blight which is not available to open in packs. The airdrop rate was 1 BCX per 50 airdrop points.
The second airdrop was Baakjira released at a rate of 1 BCX per 300 airdrop points.
The third airdrop was Uriel released at a rate of 1 BCX per 300 airdrop points.
Baakjira and Uriel airdrops were given at completion of the phase 2 sale.
The fourth airdrop was Lira released at a rate of 1 BCX per 350 airdrop points.
The fifth airdrop was Iza released at a rate of 1 BCX per 350 airdrop points.
The sixth airdrop was Grum released at a rate of 1 BCX per 350 airdrop points.
Lira, Iza and Grum airdrops were given after completion of the first day of the general sale eclipsed 6 million total packs sold. The supply of these 3 cards is higher and is anticipated to remain higher than the other legendary cards in the set suggesting that these cards may have been given too liberally in the airdrop.
The seventh airdrop was Spirit Hoarder released at a rate of 1 BCX per 500 airdrop points. This card was released after the Chaos Legion sale eclipsed 7 million packs. The 500 required airdrop points was a shock for some after the pace of previous airdrops but may have been warranted.
At the time of this article there are 12,200 copies of Doctor Blight in circulation. That number will continue to decrease as cards are leveled up and when the occasional oddball decides to burn one.
Baakjira and Uriel have circulations of 8,204 and 8,239 respectively which is basically in line with the circulation of those legendary cards that have been available in packs since the time of the initial Chaos Legion release.
Lira, Iza and Grum each have a circulation over 15,000 strong which is why the required airdrop points for Spirit Hoarder jumped so much.
There are 11,545 copies of Spirit Hoarder.
In my previous post I had anticipated the number of required airdrop points per BCX to increase by 50-100 per airdrop. After Chaos Legion packs entered prize chests, I expected that number to land closer to 50 per airdrop. The number talked about yesterday was lower than I expected and that could mean a couple of things.
There are more Chaos Legion packs being given away in prize chests than there are being sold.
There will be more circulating copies of cards from future Chaos Legion airdrops than there are of the legendary cards that came out with Chaos Legion's release.
Either of these situations could give a partial explanation for the drop in required airdrop points. There are probably additional explanations that I'm overlooking.
What does this mean for the value of Chaos Legion legendary summoners?
I think in the short to medium term Chaos Legion legendary summoners will be worth a little less. Some combination of a smaller amount of funds going into the purchase of Chaos Legion packs and a larger release of cards in the airdrop means that Quix the Devious may be the rarest summoner in Chaos Legion. The price of Quix has mostly hovered around $30. Many of us have anticipated the legendary summoners being stronger than Quix in various ways and they may still be but if they are also more common then they may not hold as much of a premium over the price of Quix.
What does this mean for the value of airdrop points?
I think it's a wash. In the short to medium term, receiving more legendary summoners that are less valuable kind of evens out and I don't think that's a bad thing.
For example:
If the required airdrop points increase at a rate of 50 per airdrop and I need 725 airdrop points to expect about 6 legendary summoners and each of those summoners are worth $70 then $70 x 6 is $420 worth of legendary summoners for 725 airdrop points.
If the required airdrop points increase at a rate of 25 per airdrop and I need 612.5 airdrop points to expect about 6 legendary summoners then 725 airdrop points should get me closer to 7 legendary summoners. If those summoners end up with an average value closer to $60 then I end up with the same $420 worth of legendary summoners, it's just been spread out a little more. That may ultimately be a good thing for most of us who can't afford to buy up thousands of packs.
What do you all think? What am I missing? Does anyone have numbers for how many packs are being given away in prize chests during a season?
Thanks for reading. Feel free to like, follow, repost and comment all over this. I'll see you in the game.