The numbers
Note: I've been asked this question so I thought I would clarify that the prediction column just means the most likely correct score. If you want to know if a game will likely finish Over/Under 2.5 goals, you can assume that a Tot G figure of 2.5+ means likely over 2.5 goals and vice versa.
The methods used to generate these are:
- Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
- Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)
The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.
Copy/pastable table version
| Home | Away | Home GE | Away GE | Tot G | G Supr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | Man United | 0.92 | 1.46 | 2.39 | -0.54 |
| Stoke | Crystal Palace | 1.22 | 1.31 | 2.53 | -0.08 |
| Bournemouth | Swansea | 1.51 | 0.91 | 2.42 | 0.59 |
| Leicester | West Ham | 1.82 | 1.09 | 2.91 | 0.74 |
| Watford | Newcastle | 1.26 | 1.19 | 2.45 | 0.06 |
| West Brom | Tottenham | 0.84 | 1.58 | 2.42 | -0.75 |
| Everton | Southampton | 1.39 | 1.05 | 2.43 | 0.34 |
| Man City | Huddersfield | 2.79 | 0.55 | 3.34 | 2.24 |
| Arsenal | Burnley | 1.62 | 0.93 | 2.54 | 0.69 |
| Chelsea | Liverpool | 1.50 | 1.28 | 2.78 | 0.22 |
| Swansea | Southampton | 1.15 | 1.00 | 2.16 | 0.15 |
| Chelsea | Huddersfield | 1.98 | 0.60 | 2.57 | 1.38 |
| Leicester | Arsenal | 1.63 | 1.46 | 3.09 | 0.17 |
| Man City | Brighton | 2.81 | 0.55 | 3.36 | 2.25 |
| Tottenham | Newcastle | 1.91 | 0.95 | 2.86 | 0.96 |
| West Ham | Man United | 0.97 | 1.88 | 2.85 | -0.91 |
Summary
- Man City are the banker of the gameweek (vs Brighton) with a GS value of 2.25
- Swansea vs Southampton is expected to be a tight, low-scoring affair with a total of just 2.16 goals predicted
Bet of the week
Pick & writeup TBA...
Bet of the week running total:
| Bets | Won | Push | Lost | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -0.95 |
Finally, the Asian Handicap picks I've gone for in @costanza's awesome weekly competition are:
B&H Albion +0.75
Leicester -0.25
WBA +1.25
Huddersfield +2.75
Burnley +1
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your FPL and bets this week!
Adam (acelad)
, resteem 
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