⚽️ English Premier League Goal Expectancies & Bet of the week (Gameweek 37) ⚽️

The numbers

EPL GEs GW37

Note: I've been asked this question so I thought I would clarify that the prediction column just means the most likely correct score. If you want to know if a game will likely finish Over/Under 2.5 goals, you can assume that a Tot G figure of 2.5+ means likely over 2.5 goals and vice versa.

The methods used to generate these are:

  • Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
  • Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)

The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.

Copy/pastable table version

HomeAwayHome GEAway GETot GG Supr
BrightonMan United0.921.462.39-0.54
StokeCrystal Palace1.221.312.53-0.08
BournemouthSwansea1.510.912.420.59
LeicesterWest Ham1.821.092.910.74
WatfordNewcastle1.261.192.450.06
West BromTottenham0.841.582.42-0.75
EvertonSouthampton1.391.052.430.34
Man CityHuddersfield2.790.553.342.24
ArsenalBurnley1.620.932.540.69
ChelseaLiverpool1.501.282.780.22
SwanseaSouthampton1.151.002.160.15
ChelseaHuddersfield1.980.602.571.38
LeicesterArsenal1.631.463.090.17
Man CityBrighton2.810.553.362.25
TottenhamNewcastle1.910.952.860.96
West HamMan United0.971.882.85-0.91

Summary

  • Man City are the banker of the gameweek (vs Brighton) with a GS value of 2.25
  • Swansea vs Southampton is expected to be a tight, low-scoring affair with a total of just 2.16 goals predicted

Bet of the week

Pick & writeup TBA...

Bet of the week running total:

BetsWonPushLostP/L
7223-0.95

Finally, the Asian Handicap picks I've gone for in @costanza's awesome weekly competition are:

B&H Albion +0.75
Leicester -0.25
WBA +1.25
Huddersfield +2.75
Burnley +1

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your FPL and bets this week!

Adam (acelad)


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