Hello guys, so in this post I want to show a chart I made which illustrates, in my opinion, that the bull trend from $6,000 to $11,700 failed and we are back to being in a downwards trend.
I illustrate this by labelling each wave of price movement as being either an Impulsive Movement (move with the current trend) or a Retracement Movement (temporary move against the current trend). I have wrote explanations of my analysis on the chart so without further ado here it is:
(Right-click and press "open image in new tab" if you can't read the text properly.)
So as you should be able to see, I do believe that the movement which relates to point 6 through point 9 was a serious attempt at creating a long-term uptrend, but it seems to have failed very prematurely. Therefore I believe that the price movement relating to point 9 to point 10 was the first impulse movement downwards in the new down-trend, and from point 10 to point 11 might prove to just be a retracement movement upwards before we see further price movement downwards overall.
Something that really supports that this was in fact a trend reversal from an up-trend to a down-trend is that there is Regular Bearish Divergence on the chart between points 7 and 9. Regular Divergence is a sign that trends will reverse and you can read more about Momentum/ Oscillator Divergence here: TUTORIAL: How To Identify Regular and Hidden RSI Divergence!.
Basically what happened here is the price made a higher high, but the MACD indicator made a lower high and so the upwards-movement from point 8 to point 9 was weak.
I am now waiting for a strong Bearish signal to sell at the end of what I believe to currently be a retracement upwards and not an impulsive move. Price is currently at the 0.382 fibonacci retracement level of the point 9 to point 10 downwards move, as you can see below, and if in 2 hours the daily closes as the doji candlestick that it currently is then with a strong bearish candle close tomorrow night I would short Bitcoin:
That is all I wanted to cover today and so thank you for reading and have a fun rest of your day! :)
Legal Disclaimer: This is just my analysis and not to be taken as professional financial advice. Do your own research beyond what you read in my blog posts and make your own decisions based on your beliefs about what to invest your money in.
