If you recall nine days ago I wrote a post claiming the market needed to test support at the doubling curve. Today that test has occurred.
2020 Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6933 | $7467 | $8000 | $8533 | $9067 | $9600 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10133 | $10667 | $11200 | $11733 | $12267 | $12800 |
The doubling curve is scary accurate.
I also said in that post that Hive would be crashing to 20 cents.
How much does Hive cost today again?
Coingecko says $0.199493, I'm gonna go ahead and round up.
A broken clock is right twice a day.
This is why we shouldn't be blindly powering up because someone told us the first of the month is official power-up day. I'm guessing a few people are salty (as always). Whatever, it's not that big of a deal. PHUD is fun.
Rule-of-3
When we consider that these dumps and/or pumps often happen in groupings of three, one may come to the conclusion that we are about to crash farther still. This is especially true when we accept that every CME futures gap has always been filled. The chance of dipping to $9600 is very high.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CME-BTC1%21/
What I would really like to see is the first time ever where the futures gap does not get filled. This would signal to me that the doubling curve is stronger than ever (a metric that I invented and no one else even considers). If we do not fill the gap a lot of people are going to be VERY surprised.
That being said I expect that the gap will fill. Perception is reality and there are plenty of bears willing to dump back down to that price. What people don't realize is that when that happens the trampoline back up due to the doubling curve will be immense. I expect to flash crash to $9600 with an equally quick spike back up to the doubling curve. This market is a day-trader's dream right now. Unfortunately Fortunately, my day-trading days are done.
I say again, it is not worth it to be fretting over these pathetic day to day movements. The big one is coming. A tidal wave, and if you miss it you're gonna feel so stupid for sticking around this long just to chicken out at the last second.
I don't know how many of you have experience surfing (or even just boogie-boarding), but when you want to catch a big wave you need to position yourself in deep water and miss a lot of small to medium sized waves. Yep, look at all your friends out there having fun riding those tiny waves. Well forget that, I'm waiting for the big one! You're not going to catch me in shallow water when it comes.
Even worse, trying to catch the big wave while you're positioned in shallow water. Yeah you've got a 100% chance of getting wrecked and wiping out as you attack a crashing wave face first.
Just admit that you missed it and move on.
Mitigate your losses.
And so I've taken this opportunity to put my money where my mouth is. I've powered up back to Orca status and I just moved $400 from my bank account into Hive. Go me. I still have plenty of liquid Hive left over to sell if we happen to go x10 in three days like last time.
Almost forgot about Ethereum.
I was worried about Eth dipping down really badly because of all this, but because it spiked right before the flash crash we're still at $400. Pretty awesome.
Conclusion
Today is a great day for crypto. The doubling curve has proved itself once again, and the more it does the easier it will be to maneuver around this seemingly chaotic market. Chaos theory is in full effect.
My original prediction was that Bitcoin would hit ATH by end of September. I believed that this unpredictable event might occur because of a trampoline bounce due to the unexpected COVID crash. However, it's starting to look more and more like we're going to get a traditional Q4 spike. Luckily the terms of my bet with @yabapmatt have changed.
I've been given till the end of the year to win the 100 Hive bet. In return I've given him better 2:1 odds. If I lose it's 200 Hive. I'm also assuming I can have January as I often include that month in "end of the year" action based on Bitcoin history. Either way is fine though.
Bottom line
Get ready for another flash crash, but don't be surprised if it doesn't happen. It would be the first time a futures gap doesn't get filled, but at the same time it would also prove the massive support Bitcoin has shown dozens of times this year regarding the doubling curve. The big wave is coming. All you have to do is swim out to deep water and wait for it.