TL;DR sometimes you just need to take a Green Day.
Boom! Bitcoin has always surprised us, but no one saw this one coming.
After tracking along and struggling to push above resistance at $4,200, the picture was unclear for bitcoin. We have just ended the week, month and quarter up, after closing around $4,100. Then, out of nowhere, came a huge green candle, the likes of which we have not seen for many months.
Bitcoin smashed through two major resistance layers at $4,300 and $4,500, currently sitting just below $4,800. BTC leaped almost $900 in just an hour. And there was VOLUME. Many, many times the average volume for preceding weeks. This was a very convincing move, with evident confidence from traders. Bitcoin has undeniably put in a higher high for the first time in many months. It peaked over $5,000 (Bitstamp), more than 20% up on the previous day. That doesn’t prove we’re heading further up, but this is an extremely promising development.
Of course, this was unsustainable in the short term and we’ve had a pullback. The thing to watch now is whether BTC bounces off old resistance, which should now become new support. That is what will critically show whether this is sustainable. For now, it appears to show – tentatively – that the bear market is over. We will hopefully see confirmation of that in the coming hours and days. The daily 200 MA is currently around $4,600, which will also be a key point to watch.
There will be volatility in the short term. The wick on the 4h candle shows that. But make no mistake: this was a very, very meaningful move.
Alts moved up too but did not follow BTC to the same extent. The alts cap has clearly been rising over last 3 months now. Alts mostly moved down against BTC, though easily held their USD value. We will also be watching carefully what happens here, whether money moves back into the alts and powers them massively higher, or whether traders are more conservative and seek to keep funds in BTC ahead of anticipated further moves to the upside.
It’s exciting times, guys. Welcome to the ride.
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