Welcome back to Round 3 of Matchday Matrix.
There was a request for us to add prior round results to the contest tab and while 
The goals markets continue to be the ones that are easier to hit. There was just 1 draw in Serie A (0-0 surprise surprise), just 1 game that finished with 10.5 corners and that was courtesy of a very late 11th corner in La Liga and 2 chances for the +3.5 yellow card pick.
I think today's matches are the toughest set yet. No one has so far got a perfect score, it has been possible in both rounds to date but only via 1 set of outcomes. At the same time no one has delivered a 'nul points'. Could that change today?
Here are the 5 games. Selections close at 6:30pm (BST).
A really intriguing Premier League clash to kick things off. Villa are almost assured of a Champions League spot next season and so perhaps their focus is more on over-coming the 1 goal deficit to Forest in midweek.
If they win the Europa League Villa will have their name engraved directly below that of Spurs. Last May was a happy time for Tottenham fans, this May happiness is reliant on staying in the top flight. After West Ham lost, Spurs can drag themselves out of the bottom 3 with a victory.
Villa at home have been a different beast for the past couple of seasons and only the top 2 have more home wins than they do this season. Spurs, meanwhile, are just about the most chaotic team in the league. They’ll score, they’ll concede, and they rarely do boring.
That immediately brings BTTS and Over 2.5 goals into play at odds of 1.61 and 1.75 respectively. Spurs games in particular have been goldmines for both markets of late, especially away from home where their defensive structure can best be described as “optional”.
The discipline angle is interesting too. Spurs matches can get stretched, Villa won’t shy away from a challenge. As
However, Romero is still out so there's 1 yellow card you can't bank on this weekend...
Corners could be a decent shout. Villa average 10 a game, Spurs 10.15
On paper, this looks like a mismatch but these are often the trickiest to place in the matrix.
Real Madrid dominate most games territorially, but when facing defensive setups, the match can sometimes drift. Espanyol will almost certainly sit deep and try to frustrate a Real side that have won only 1 of its last 5 La Liga games
That creates a bit of tension between outcomes! Over 2.5 goals depends on how early Madrid break through. BTTS feels less likely unless Espanyol nick one. Bear in mind this is a side who has scored just once in their last 4 matches. Despite that the bookies are offering odds as low as 1.57 on both these outcomes.
Draw? Always tempting in these “park the bus” scenarios and with Real struggling to find their rhytm but risky at odds of 3.90.
Madrid usually control possession heavily, which doesn’t always translate into loads of corners. 42% of their games this season have breached the 10.5 mark.
Cards could be one to watch. Espanyol alone have picked up a minimum of 3 yellows per match across the 4 games they played in April. That included 9 yellows in the Barca derby a couple of weeks ago.
There is plenty to play for in this one as Freiburg look to sneak a European spot next year courtesy of the success of other German clubs in this year's competitions including their own.
Meanwhile Wolfsburg are simply trying to maintain their place in the top flight and currently sit 2nd bottom.
Defence has been an issue for both these clubs all season. Wolfsburg got a nil nil draw last time out but that was their first clean sheet since October! They have also conceded more goals on their travels this season than any other side in the Bundesliga.
On the flip side, they have scored in 4 of their last 5 away trips and therefore (as always seems the case with Bundesliga matches) over 2.5 goals (1.67) and BTTS (1.57) look decent picks. When these 2 met back in December, the match finished 3-4!
A draw (3.4) wouldn't really do either of these sides any favours in their respective quests (Wolfsburg still need to play Bayern Munich) so expect both to be playing for the win.
If stats are to be believed then there is also value in the corners market for this one. Wolfsburg games this season have on average had 11.94 corners, almost 1.5 corners more per match than any other side in the Bundesliga.
That however is primarily driven by corners against them (7.77 per match). Freiburg have the 5th lowest corner count for in the division so it remains to be seen if they can up their numbers against this shaky Wolfsburg backline.
Yellow card wise, things got a bit heated right before the final whistle of Wolfsburg's last match but otherwise this doesn't feel like a fixture that will attract a lot of disciplinary issues.
Napoli's draw yesterday means that Inter can claim the scudetto in front of their own fans this afternoon.
Parma are languishing in mid-table but are unbeaten in their last 4, a run that has ensured they don't get sucked into a relegation battle.
Their primary issue this season has been finding the back of the net. They've scored just 25 goals in 34 Serie A matches. Only 29% of their games this season have finished with over 2.5 goals and it's therefore not that surprising that BTTS is out at 1.95. However, the bookies still fancy goals, presumably with Inter doing most of the work to get you to over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.44.
Parma have secured 12 draws so far this season but odds on them doing so in this game are as long as 6.00. Inter have dropped points in just 4 games at the San Siro this season so that feels like a fair reflection.
Parma are even dull on the yellow card front. Just 5 bookings in their last 4 matches. Inter have been similarly quiet with the exception of their match against Como which got a bit frenetic and lead to 7 of their players alone picking up a yellow. I doubt Parma will offer as much excitement...
Inter's dominance might well translate into corners, they've generated more opportunities than any side in Serie A and 46% of their matches finish with over 10.5 corners.
A huge match in the race for 3rd spot and automatic qualification for the CL. Lyon have won their last 3 while Rennes are on a 4 match streak. Something has to give this evening!
Given it's such a tight game between 2 evenly matched sides a draw at odds of 3.5 might not be a bad shout.
That being said the bookies don't think it'll be a quiet affair with BTTS at 1.55 and over 2.5 goals at 1.66.
Certainly Rennes will come with some attacking intent. There have been over 2.5 goals in their last 4 matches and they've delivered a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 away games.
Rennes matches average 10.42 corners per game (2nd highest in Ligue1) versus Lyon who are 3rd highest with 10.13. However, Lyon tend to be either feast or famine on the corner front only 29% of their matches have finished over 10.5 corners!
If this is a tight, competitive match then recent history suggests yellow cards. 50% of the games that both played in April (4 each) ended with over 3.5 cards.
We've had our first casualty of the contest with 
4 players managed a commendable 6 points from yesterday's games but that's not as commendable as 
| Place | Account | Previous Round Score | Total Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | 5 | 11 |
| 1 |  | 6 | 11 |
| 3 |  | 4 | 10 |
| 3 |  | 6 | 10 |
| 5 |  | 5 | 9 |
| 5 |  | 6 | 9 |
| 5 |  | 6 | 9 |
| 8 |  | 4 | 8 |
| 9 |  | 4 | 7 |
| 10 | | 2 | 6 |
| 10 |  | 4 | 6 |
| 12 | | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | | 0 | 5 |
A reminder to get your round 3 picks in by 6:30pm (BST) this evening!
If you fail to pick, you are eliminated!
