I am here for freedom first of all. But we all need to survive, so the economy was what made me get started on Hive, at least there is the potential to make really independent and uncensorable income here.
So for me the price of Hive itself is not as important as the whole project surviving and thriving long term. With that in mind, this is my long term take on Hive the next years until maybe 2028/29.
Now, I am active in the Monero space for obvious reasons. In my opinion it is maybe the only really free, global market out there, and the price as well as the community reflects that.
This is the Monero price across its lifespan. It is pretty obvious that it has been growing steadily, but with a couple of "speculative episodes" when FOMO rages all across the space.
It is also clear that there have been two relatively stable phases inbetween, where the second one is higher.
Monero in log. My thinking is that this is clearly a floor, and based on the above I expect a new floor after this bull market is finished, this year or in 2026.
Now, what about Hive? Well we have had one purely speculative phase only. We did get a start of one, but it turned out a dud.
For now, that is...
What happened? Well the dominance of Bitcoin did its thing. I have old charts going back to even 2022 or so where my target for that was 70%+, simply based on tech adoption and so on.
Now that it looks like Bitcoin certainly will rage again I expect Hive to do a second, speculative run. But since I'm here long term that I'm looking at what might come after that.
A price surge will for sure be a huge motivation, and new users will rush in. But will the next bear market be a good thing for building Hive?
This is sort of what I expect for Monero, another speculative run, and then a new bottom, maybe at around 300, or even higher. But I do expect it to behave somewhat the same.
So I will be watching the same for Hive! Will we get a relatively stable phase again, but where the floor is higher?
Actually I think that this is the best conditions to build long term, a speculative phase that leads to lots of new users, motivation and so on, but then a cooling off that shakes out those who are here for pure speculation or manipulation only.
What do you think about these things?
