In the previous post — Codex Brief: Liquidity Event Delivered — I wrote that “three setups remain before the next phase.”
Setup 4 has now played out exactly as the playbook foreshadowed.
Only two remain: Setup 5, the most important long of the C‑wave consolidation, and Setup 6 before the second flush.
Relief is coming — but it’s not the turn.
It’s the setup.
The only green candle in the entire B→C wave.
The lower‑high that prepares the swingshort for the second flush.
BTC is moving exactly as mapped in Brief 2: three red weeks, controlled drift, and a relief window approaching.
This post is not about reversal — it’s about recognizing the trap before it forms.
BTC fractal on track — In Codex Brief 2, the C‑wave roadmap outlined a simple rhythm:
We are now deep inside that Week 2-3 drift — the exact low‑momentum compression phase the model expected.
The updated weekly BTC chart shows it clearly: three red weeks, exactly on schedule. The same chart we have been tracking since Nov 22, 2025.
The broader outlook from Brief 2 remains fully intact.
The same invalidation still applies: a weekly reclaim of the 100‑week MA around 87.4k would break the model and cancel the expected flush.
Until that happens, the C‑wave structure continues to unfold as mapped.
Back in November 2025, Codex mapped:
None of this was prediction.
It was structure repeating the same rhythm documented since 2022.
Brief 2 confirmed it:
consolidation first, relief later.
February followed the script.
Most traders avoid red weeks.
But in Codex, these weeks are not dead weeks — they’re rhythm weeks.
It’s about how structure turns bearish phases into opportunity, using February 2026 as a clean case study.
Bear weeks offer:
BTC sets the tempo.
ETH echoes.
ALTs amplify.
When you trade phases, not coins, bear weeks become some of the easiest weeks of the cycle.
I always take partial profits when structure shows exhaustion.
ALT entries are always timed against BTC’s phase — never in isolation.
There is no certainty in trading, only probability and structure.
February was pure rhythm.
I traded the entire C‑wave consolidation with precision: BTC’s fractal dictated setups 1–4, ETH acted as the echo, and ALTs came in two waves — the Feb 6 wick reaction and the Feb 11–13 breakout that delivered the month’s momentum.
Scalp‑longs during BTC setup 3 became the core driver, exactly as described in the recent Codex Brief — Follow‑Up.
Even in a bearish month while BTC printed three red candles, perfectly matching the 2022 playbook, structure has produced clean execution — before setup 5 (relief long) and setup 6 (swing short) have even triggered.
On February 1, I published Codex Brief 11 Silent Entries Before the Breakdown — the mirror of the June 23 entries 11 Entries Taken in Silence Before the Breakout, but in reverse.
Those swing‑shorts are still open — Account Screenshot
They have expanded significantly since the breakdown began, and they remain part of the second phase of the C‑wave — the same phase outlined in Brief 2.
We are only mid‑cycle: BTC is in the Week 2-3 drift, not the flush.
Setup 5 is the relief long.
Setup 6 is the flush.
The silent entries were positioned for Setup 6, not for the relief window.
Above them sits the B‑peak swing short — the structural anchor for the entire B→C transition.
It is designed to survive every phase of the cycle:
B‑peak → first flush → consolidation and relief → second flush → Wave‑4 top → Wave‑5 drift → accumulation.
The position remains valid until the market reclaims the 50‑week MA — the earliest confirmation of a new bullcycle.
The management rules are simple:
This is how a bear‑cycle is planned:
one macro swing for the phase, scalps inside the setups, and adjustments only at the true pivots.
This creates a structural buffer — not as protection, but as psychological stability. It allows the next cycle’s swing long to be built without stress.
Setup 5 is the most important long of this consolidation — and it will be treated as such.
And the reason is simple:
It is the only clean reload window in the entire B→C sequence.
In the 2022 B→C wave, there was only one green weekly candle — the lower‑high relief. That candle was the trap before the second flush.
This window is where I plan to:
Setup 5 is the hinge between:
the best long of the consolidation → and the best short before 2nd flush.
It is the pivot.
Tier 1 readers already have the full playbook.
The Wave‑4 relief playbook is already mapped as well — it will be released in Brief 3 when the 60k low breaks and confirms the second flush.
Codex is documented live — and the next chapter is already written, waiting for the pivot.
Early‑backer tier is still open — 50% lifetime discount until paid tiers officially launch.
https://codexbrief.substack.com/subscribe
Over the past week I’ve reviewed every phase from July 2025 to February 2026 — the cycle that shaped Codex.
Not the trades.
Not the results.
But the memory, the method, and the rhythm behind everything.
Coming next:
🌀 How Codex Formed — A Rhythm Recap (July 2025 → February 2026)
Please do follow if you want to keep up with my next post. Any upvotes or reblogs are hugely appreciated!
Latest post, check out :
🌀 Codex Brief — Follow‑Up: Liquidity Event Delivered, C‑Wave Playing Out
Christopher
Kristiansand, Norway
Source: Photos are chart-screenshots by me from Tradingview.com and screenshots from my personal trading journal.
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