74k is Make or Break
Extreme Fear is back in the crypto market. There are plenty of reasons for it: the cycle narrative telling people “it’s time” for another bear market, ETF buyers hesitating to buy the dip, strong competition from gold and silver over the past 12 months, FUD around the Trump administration, an unclear path for Fed interest rate policy, you name it. People are tired. People are exhausted. And people are selling.
As a consequence, Bitcoin is now at a very crucial point. A level on the chart that could decide between bear market confirmation and the chance for a bullish rebound. That level is around 74k. It’s the low we saw last spring during the peak of the Trump tariff FUD. Now we’re testing it again. Will it hold?
To be honest, nobody knows. I don’t know.
What I do know is that Bitcoin’s fundamentals haven’t changed. What I do know is that Bitcoin is the best-performing asset of the past decade. And I know that I’ll buy more if we see real sale prices in the 60s.
My worst-case scenario is a drop toward 58–63k, roughly a 50% drawdown from the highs and slightly below the 2021 ATH. Painful, yes. But also historically not unusual.
What about you?
